Goldman Sachs: EM Weekly Kickstart — Strongest Performance in Tech-Heavy North Asia and Commodity Markets

The MSCI Emerging Markets index rose 1% week-over-week, driven by strong gains in South Korea, South Africa, and Brazil, while MENA markets lagged. Currently, around 30% of MSCI EM companies, representing 50% of the market capitalization, have reported fourth-quarter earnings. Overall results slightly missed expectations, largely dragged down by weaker performances in emerging Asia. At the sector level, healthcare and financials posted positive surprises, whereas materials and energy disappointed. The MSCI EM index currently trades at 13.1 times forward price-to-earnings, which sits 0.7 standard deviations above its 10-year average.

Over the past month, 2026 earnings estimates for emerging markets have been revised upward by 5.1%, led entirely by North Asian technology markets. Fourth-quarter performance varied significantly across regions. North Asia slightly missed expectations, with Taiwan offsetting weakness in Korea. India concluded its earnings season with positive surprises for the fifth consecutive quarter, while ASEAN nations generally exceeded expectations. Earnings revisions have been the strongest in tech-heavy North Asia, Latin American commodity markets, South Africa, and the UAE. Global emerging market funds have now recorded 18 consecutive weeks of net inflows, attracting $4.3 billion last week alone. Year-to-date inflows have reached $45 billion, marking the fastest annual buying pace seen in the asset class over the past two decades.