UBS Uranium: Powering Up
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
UBS has turned increasingly bullish on uranium, driven by enhanced policy certainty, persistent supply challenges, and a reacceleration in the contracting cycle. Spot uranium prices currently sit at $85 per pound, representing a roughly 25% year-over-year increase, with demand momentum continuing to build. Concurrently, new mine supply is facing structural delays and rising costs, exacerbated by inflationary pressures in key producing regions such as Canada.
To reflect these tightening market dynamics, UBS has raised its short-term uranium price forecasts by as much as 25%, projecting an average price of $95 per pound for 2026, 2027, and 2028. The long-term incentive price has also been upgraded from $77 to $100 per pound. Demand strength is being fueled by supportive US nuclear policies, including NRC restructuring and Section 232 objectives, alongside AI-related capacity expansion, nuclear program reversals in countries like South Korea, and reactor life extensions.
Regarding equity coverage, UBS raised target prices across its coverage universe but downgraded Paladin Energy to Neutral, noting the stock has more than doubled from 2025 lows. Cameco's target was increased by 9% to CAD 152.00, while Boss Energy's target was lifted by 23% to AUD 1.60, both maintaining Neutral ratings. UBS highlights that price risks remain skewed to the upside due to concentrated supply and geopolitical factors.