Bernstein: SanDisk — How High Can Estimates and the Stock Go? Raising TP to $1,250, Blue-Sky Scenario at $3,000
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Bernstein significantly raised SanDisk (SNDK) earnings estimates and target price, arguing the market underestimates the durability of NAND pricing and earnings potential. The firm contends that Turboquant's impact on NAND demand is limited, primarily affecting DRAM, and structural NAND supply shortages persist alongside strong AI storage demand.
Bernstein lifted the FQ4'26 non-GAAP EPS forecast to $25.30, well above the $18.78 consensus, while FQ3'26 EPS remains at $14.18 versus $13.99 consensus. The target price increases from $1,000 to $1,250, based on 11 times through-cycle earnings (FY26-29 average EPS of $114). A blue-sky scenario envisions NAND ASPs rising 75% sequentially for two quarters, producing FY27 EPS of $224 and a $3,000 target at 13 times earnings.
SNDK currently trades at 9.0 times consensus FY27 EPS, below historical peak-cycle multiples of 10 to 13 times. Bernstein maintains an Outperform rating and designates SNDK a top short-term pick. The firm also covers Seagate (STX, target $620) and Western Digital (WDC, target $340) with Outperform ratings.
Key catalysts include FQ3'26 results on April 30 and FQ4'26 guidance. Risks encompass NAND price peaks, greater-than-expected Turboquant effects, and cyclical downturns.