Goldman Sachs: Hesai Group (HSAI/2525.HK) — Raising LiDAR Volume Forecast on Higher China Robotaxi TAM; Buy
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Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 to 2030 LiDAR shipment volume forecast for Hesai Group by 0.1% to 2.0%, reflecting a 7% to 25% upward revision in China's Robotaxi fleet estimates for 2025 through 2035. Hesai holds a dominant 61% share of the global Robotaxi LiDAR market as of 2024, supplying major domestic and international operators. Although Robotaxi LiDAR shipment volumes remain smaller than ADAS volumes currently, this segment is expected to experience a massive 160% compound annual growth rate over the next five years, driven by rapid fleet expansion and higher average selling prices alongside superior margins.
Consequently, Goldman Sachs lifted its 2026 to 2030 earnings estimates for Hesai by 0.2% to 1.5%. The 12-month target price was raised from $34 per ADR and 265 HKD per H-share to $35 and 273 HKD, respectively. This valuation applies a 20 times multiple to 2030 earnings per share, discounted to 2026 using an 11% cost of equity, implying roughly 43% to 44% upside from current price levels of $24.54 and 189.2 HKD. The Buy rating is maintained.
Key growth catalysts include an anticipated inflection point in 2026, where level 3 autonomy transitions from road testing to actual deployment. Furthermore, Hesai plans to launch two new robotics-related products within the coming months, potentially generating revenue as early as 2026. Overseas expansion remains robust, highlighted by Hesai's selection as a primary LiDAR partner for the NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion 10 platform, targeting international revenue to constitute 30% of total revenue by 2027.