Goldman Sachs China Property Weekly: April Volumes May Turn Positive, C-REITs Approval Accelerates
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Goldman Sachs reports that both primary and secondary property transactions in China continued their week-over-week growth in Week 17 of 2026, setting the stage for roughly 5% year-on-year volume growth in April. However, leading indicators such as new-home search activity and reservation volumes have softened. The approval process for C-REITs is accelerating, with the first batch of four commercial property C-REITs—three retail and one office—receiving CSRC approval in just two to three months. These underlying assets feature near-full occupancy and an average 2026 AFFO yield of 5.3%. The current C-REITs pipeline now includes 17 products totaling approximately 60 billion yuan in issuance size. Inventory across monitored cities continues to gradually decline, with the months of supply dropping to 29.2 months. On the construction front, the GSPC tracker indicates April completions fell about 10% year-on-year, while new starts declined by mid-teens. Top developer contract sales are expected to show a narrowing 14% year-on-year decline for April. Valuations remain near historical troughs, with both onshore and offshore covered developers trading at roughly 0.5 times 2026E price-to-book. Goldman favors strong state-owned developers, maintaining a Buy on CR Land (1109.HK) with a target price of HK$31.40.
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