Goldman Sachs Japan Technology: IT Services - AI Disruption Causes Market Volatility, but Limited Impact Expected on Major System Integrators; NRI to Collaborate with Anthropic
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Goldman Sachs highlights that the recent launch of generative AI solutions by Anthropic has rapidly intensified market anxieties regarding AI-driven disruption across the IT services sector. On February 24, Japanese IT service stocks experienced a broad and severe sell-off. While Goldman Sachs acknowledges that positive short-term catalysts remain scarce and volatility is likely to persist, the firm maintains its fundamental view that certain complex systems are highly resistant to AI substitution.
Specifically, highly customized backbone systems requiring extensive real-time processing, accounting software demanding absolute precision and repeatability, and security software reliant on real-time threat interception remain technologically difficult for generative AI to replace. Furthermore, tools like Claude Code function as static code analysis assistants designed to enhance development efficiency, rather than serving as direct replacements for the core systems themselves.
Reinforcing this perspective, Nomura Research Institute (NRI) announced an expansion of its partnership with Anthropic Japan on the same day as the market downturn. NRI plans to bolster the implementation of the Claude Cowork AI agent and expand its internal utilization of Claude Code. Goldman Sachs views this collaboration as clear evidence that major domestic system integrators can coexist and actively partner with AI technologies. The firm maintains its Buy ratings on leading integrators including NRI, NEC, and Fujitsu. Goldman Sachs expects IT service stocks to bottom and rebound once the market fully appreciates the technical barriers to system replacement, the structurally low internal development rates among Japanese enterprise clients, and the inherently symbiotic relationship between traditional integrators and emerging AI productivity tools.