JPMorgan: Global Silicon Wafer Industry Outlook Based on Siltronic 2026 Guidance
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JPMorgan highlights a challenging 2026 outlook for the global silicon wafer industry, drawing on Siltronic's latest guidance, recent commentary from major manufacturers, and SEMI shipment data. Siltronic expects 2026 revenue to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage year-over-year due to negative currency impacts, declining 200mm demand, and continued pricing pressure outside long-term agreements. However, excluding currency effects and small-diameter line closures, comparable sales remain roughly flat.
SUMCO anticipates flat or only marginal growth in 300mm wafer shipments for 2026, as the company adjusts deliveries to help logic clients reduce elevated inventory levels. Similarly, GlobalWafers noted that direct price increases remain difficult given oversupply, with January revenue falling 14% year-over-year. According to SEMI data, 2025 global wafer shipment area grew 6% year-over-year, but revenue declined 1% to 11.4 billion dollars, implying a 6% average selling price decline.
Although artificial intelligence continues to support 300mm wafer volumes, non-AI demand remains weak. Current inventory adjustments could help establish a stronger recovery foundation in 2027, but 2026 is likely to experience only modest growth. JPMorgan maintains its Overweight rating on Shin-Etsu Chemical, Neutral on SUMCO, and Underweight on GlobalWafers, noting that expectations for GlobalWafers remain well ahead of underlying fundamentals.