Bernstein NVIDIA (NVDA.US): Back to Work, Starting With a Jensen CES Keynote and Analyst Q&A
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Following NVIDIA's CES 2026 keynote and analyst Q&A session, Bernstein reiterates an Outperform rating with a target price of $275. The investment thesis remains supported by a highly attractive valuation and enormous data center opportunities. Management confirmed that the Vera Rubin platform is already in full production, with shipments slated to begin in the second half of 2026.
The new architecture represents a massive performance leap compared to Blackwell, delivering five times the inference performance, 3.5 times the training performance, and double the NVLink bandwidth. Crucially, these gains are achieved with only a 1.6-fold increase in transistor count. NVIDIA emphasized that competitors will struggle to challenge this trajectory because the company leverages a co-optimized, full-stack system approach rather than competing solely on discrete chip metrics.
Furthermore, physical AI applications, particularly autonomous driving, are reaching an inflection point. NVIDIA's current business in edge autonomous driving and data center simulation already generates between $5 billion and $10 billion, and management expects this segment to become immense by the end of the decade. The pending acquisition of Groq complements existing capabilities by adding ultra-low latency inference. While China export licensing for the H200 remains uncertain pending government clarification, management stressed that global supply remains abundant and overall demand momentum continues into a strong 2026.