Goldman Sachs: South Korea Technology - March 2026 GS DRAM Sentiment Indicator: Solid Fundamentals, Yet Weaker Sentiment
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Goldman Sachs reports that its March 2026 DRAM sentiment indicator points to a slightly positive reading, downgraded one notch from the moderately positive level observed in February. While underlying fundamentals remain robust, investor sentiment has deteriorated due to geopolitical tensions surrounding the Iran conflict and emerging concerns regarding memory optimization technologies like TurboQuant.
On the positive side, DDR4 spot prices rose 1% month-over-month, while February DRAM exports from South Korea skyrocketed 322% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth rate since January 2008. Nanya Technology posted a staggering 587% year-over-year revenue increase, maintaining seven consecutive months of triple-digit growth. Furthermore, server original design manufacturers sustained strong momentum, reporting an 84% year-over-year revenue surge, continuing a four-month streak of growth exceeding 80%.
However, the data also revealed weaknesses. DDR5 spot prices declined by 5%, and Chinese smartphone shipments fell 13% year-over-year, marking three consecutive months of double-digit declines. Goldman Sachs estimates that second-quarter blended average selling prices for DRAM will increase by roughly 35% quarter-over-quarter, but the second derivative of this growth stands at approximately negative 34 percentage points, signaling peaking momentum.
Despite short-term headwinds, Goldman Sachs maintains a long-term bullish outlook. The firm believes that more efficient memory usage will ultimately drive broader artificial intelligence adoption and expand the total addressable market for memory semiconductors. The bank reiterates Buy ratings on SK Hynix with a target price of KRW 1,350,000, and on Samsung Electronics with a target price of KRW 260,000.