Goldman Sachs: Navigating China Internet - Ecommerce Tracker Shows Unexpected Online Retail Strength
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Goldman Sachs notes that China's national online retail merchandise GMV surged 10% year-on-year during the first two months of 2026, a significant acceleration from the 1% growth posted in December. The firm attributes this upside surprise primarily to seasonal base effects driven by the later timing of the Lunar New Year promotions. Segment performance was robust across the board, with online apparel sales jumping 18% and communication equipment also growing 18%, while appliance sales stabilized with a 3% gain.
Overall retail sales grew 2.8% year-on-year, slightly exceeding both Goldman Sachs' forecast and the Bloomberg consensus of 2.5%. Industry parcel volumes increased approximately 7% in the first two months, prompting the firm to revise its full-year 2026 projections. Goldman Sachs now expects online GMV to grow 6% and parcel volume to increase 7%, upgrades from the prior 5% estimates for both metrics.
Looking ahead to upcoming earnings, the tracker highlights several investor focus areas, including Alibaba's differentiation in instant retail and the trajectory of its monetization revenue. The food delivery and instant retail sectors appear to be reaching an investment peak. Antitrust developments are expected to stabilize market shares among the three major platforms, leading to more rational subsidy competition and narrowing losses. Within the logistics sector, Goldman Sachs maintains Buy ratings on SF Holding, JD Logistics, and ZTO Express, while assigning Sell ratings to YTO Express and Sinotrans.