JPMorgan Sporting Goods Retail: U.S. Growth, Promotions, and Sneaker Release Calendar; Overweight Reiterated on Dick's, adidas, and On
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Key Points
- Helped by back-to-school and Labor Day, September U.S. sporting goods spending rose 8.1% year-over-year, accelerating from 3.9% in August.
- Dick's core same-store sales remain strong despite Foot Locker's (FL) softness, with more strategic, disciplined discounting in September.
- Brand direct-to-consumer promotion stays heavier than wholesale, notably in the U.S., U.K., and France.
- adidas shows among the lowest promotional breadth in the U.S.; On keeps promotions limited at retail partners, prioritizing inventory health.
- Puma's promotion remains high in the U.S. and France, and inventory-clearing pressure could delay its turnaround given a weak consumer and elevated stock.
Release Calendar and Outlook
Sneaker launches rebounded in the second half, with Q3 activity up 40-60% versus Q2; plans skew to NBA All-Star in February 2026 and the World Cup in July 2026, and early reads on the November 2026 slate show a balanced distribution across brands. A strong Q4 holiday lineup is expected. Charts also show improving discount breadth at JD Sports despite a small uptick as the fashion promo season began.
Key exhibits
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