Goldman Sachs: Micron Technology (MU.US) FQ4 Preview — Another Strong Quarter Expected as Supply Stays Tight; Capital Returns in Focus
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Ahead of Micron Technology's fiscal Q4 2026 (August quarter) results, Goldman Sachs expects another strong quarter as DRAM and NAND supply remains tight, with revenue roughly 3% above consensus. Goldman forecasts revenue of $51.9 billion, gross margin of 87.3% and non-GAAP EPS of $32.54, versus Street estimates of $50.5 billion, 87.0% and $31.40; it expects guidance for low-double-digit sequential revenue growth in the November quarter, where its $57.7 billion/88.1%/$37.06 forecast also sits above Street. On updated DRAM demand and pricing, Goldman raised estimates and introduced CY2029 for the first time: CY2027/CY2028 non-GAAP EPS were marked up 8.7%/31.0% to $170.70/$175.66, with CY2029 at $174.22; CY2026 revenue/EPS sit 1%/3% above consensus. Positioning is long given tightness, though investors worry about long-term supply additions, especially in China. Three call catalysts: new SCAs and their pricing, capital returns including buybacks under CHIPS restrictions, and sustaining ~20% HBM share with HBM4 shipments and HBM4E sampling. Target $1,100 (18x normalized EPS of $62.00), implying 12.5% upside from $977.41. CXMT DRAM share gains are the key downside risk; HBM execution and higher AI-driven content the upside.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
