HSBC: Potential US Inverter Restrictions Could Hurt Chinese Energy Storage Players
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HSBC assesses that potential US policy restrictions on foreign inverters would negatively impact Chinese solar and energy storage companies, though completely excluding them remains impractical. According to Reuters, the US FCC is drafting import bans that could be announced as early as 2026. While North America accounts for only about 8% of global solar demand in 2025, it represents roughly 20% of global energy storage demand, making it a critical growth market. Chinese manufacturers dominate the global supply chain, with the top nine Chinese solar inverter companies holding an 83% market share in 2024. A ban would likely target new product models, minimizing disruption to existing projects but heavily impacting utility-scale developments. HSBC favors Deye over Sungrow due to differing US exposures. Deye derives only 2-3% of its revenue from the US, making it highly defensive. HSBC maintains a Buy rating on Deye with a target price of RMB 187.86. Conversely, Sungrow relies on the US for 10-20% of its revenue and holds a significant market share there. HSBC retains its Buy rating and RMB 210 target price on Sungrow but acknowledges higher sensitivity to potential tariffs and regulatory hurdles. Ultimately, policy specifics and transition periods will dictate the real impact on these essential supply chains.
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