Huatai Securities: Rise in US Treasury Yields Pauses
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Huatai Securities' weekly macro review finds that US growth momentum is moderating at the margin even as consumption resilience and a stable labor market persist, while services price pressures build. The Atlanta Fed trimmed its Q3 GDP forecast, retail sales continued to rise year on year, initial jobless claims came in below expectations, and the ISM non-manufacturing prices index hit a new high. On policy, the Federal Reserve signaled the possibility of another rate hike this year — with market expectations for remaining 2026 tightening holding near 25bp — while US-Iran negotiations continued and China-EU trade and investment consultations reached a preliminary understanding. Financial markets saw the Treasury yield curve shift lower: the dollar index strengthened to 102.2 as of October 9, the three major US equity indices advanced, Brent crude rose 2.4% to $104.72 per barrel, and COMEX gold futures gained 1.3% to $4,216.30 per ounce. Goldman's gauge showed US financial conditions easing slightly while euro-area conditions tightened marginally. Next week's focus falls on US September CPI and retail sales data.
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