Goldman Sachs Optics Sector Trip: Ten Key Takeaways from Meetings with Entrepreneurs on Technology, Demand, Supply and Competition
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During August 31–September 7, 2026, coinciding with the Asia Leader Conference, Semicon Taiwan and Goldman's China AI Tour, Goldman Sachs met 13 optics supply-chain companies across Hong Kong, Taiwan and Suzhou—optical modules, photonic-IC test and coupling equipment, FAUs, and InP epiwafers/CW lasers—distilling ten takeaways. Managements were upbeat on optical-module demand: global 800G and 1.6T volumes could reach 130–200 million units, with China growing at a mid-double-digit rate to over 50 million (mostly 800G/400G, 1.6T emerging). Tight DSP, laser and PCB supply may still constrain 2027 shipments; Goldman had already raised 2027E/2028E global 800G+ demand 39%/36% to 144m/171m units, and supply-chain optimism implies further upside. Pricing stays healthy—single-digit 2027 declines for 800G, 1.6T above $700—while Chinese vendors ramp 200G EMLs and VPEC expands MOCVDs from 62 to 69 by 2Q27. CPO commercialization will take time (NPO first), but test/coupling equipment makers benefit earliest: Robotechnik's 2Q26 revenue rose 172% QoQ, 141% above Goldman's estimate; CPO switch shipments are seen at 10k/92k/131k for 2026–28E. Management stressed AI spending is early in a 10–20 year cycle with 1–2 year payback. Ratings: Innolight Buy (A: Rmb2,645; H: HK$3,267), Robotechnik Buy (Rmb796), FOCI Buy (NT$833), VPEC Buy (NT$793), ASMPT Neutral (HK$177).