Goldman Sachs The Obesity Evolution: Refining Our Global AOM Market Model — Oral Options and OUS Poised to Capture Volumes

Goldman Sachs has refined its global anti-obesity medication market model, projecting the total addressable market to reach approximately $100 billion by 2030. A significant paradigm shift is anticipated as oral therapeutic options and international markets outside the United States emerge as primary volume drivers. The firm expects oral small-molecule drugs, such as Novo Nordisk's Amycretin and Eli Lilly's Orforglipron, to secure regulatory approval between 2027 and 2028, dramatically lowering treatment barriers and improving patient compliance. Once approved, oral formulations are projected to constitute roughly 30% of the total market, capturing roughly $30 billion in revenue. Geographically, markets outside the US are positioned to capture about 40% of global sales volumes, buoyed by demographic advantages and favorable reimbursement policies. China represents a particularly lucrative opportunity, with an estimated market size of $15 billion by 2030, driven by an aging population and rising obesity prevalence. While Europe faces price controls that may temper revenue growth, its sheer volume base remains highly attractive. Goldman Sachs maintains Buy ratings on both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, emphasizing that their robust product pipelines and first-mover advantages in dual and triple-target agonists will sustain their competitive dominance. Key risks include potential bioavailability challenges for oral therapies and pricing pressures.