UBS: Updated Payments Industry Benchmarking and Model — Volume Growth Across Card Networks, Acquirers, and Software-Enabled Payments
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UBS published an updated payments industry benchmarking report comparing transaction volume growth across card networks, scaled acquirers, and high-growth software-enabled payment providers. The analysis reveals that card network volume growth sequentially decelerated in calendar Q4 2025. Specifically, Visa's US payment volume growth slowed from approximately 7.6% in CQ3 to about 6.6%, while Mastercard decelerated from roughly 7% to 4.7%, partially affected by the Capital One debit migration. Globally, Visa's nominal volume growth declined to 8%, and Mastercard's gross dollar volume fell to 8.8%.
Quarter-to-date trends through January 21 indicate stabilized recent momentum. Visa US payments grew 8%, with cross-border volume excluding intra-Europe rising 11%. Mastercard US payments increased 5%, supported by stable consumer spending driven by a strong labor market. Both networks suggested their diversified traffic corridors help mitigate risks from recent geopolitical tensions.
The report features an updated industry model that segments card volumes and values regionally and globally, comparing average spreads, standard deviations, and R-squared values between Visa and Mastercard, alongside bank debit and credit issuer volumes. Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) remain UBS top picks. Notably, Visa FY2026 net revenue growth may experience a slight acceleration compared to FY2025's organic growth of roughly 11.5%. However, this assumes no disruption from proposed credit card interest rate caps. Additionally, the proposed Visa and Mastercard merchant settlement is anticipated to receive final court approval by late 2026 or early 2027.