Bernstein CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV.US) 2Q26 Preview: A holding pattern
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Key Views
2Q26 revenue guidance stands at $2.45–$2.60 billion, with adjusted operating income (AOI) of $30–$90 million, implying 2H26 AOI of $790 million–$1.05 billion. Demand and backlog are unlikely to pose issues, though deployment timing, capex intensity, margins, and interest burden remain key concerns. First-quarter margin pressure was characterized as timing-related rather than structural, as energized shells incurred lease, power, and depreciation costs before contributing normalized margins. 2026 revenue is expected to remain within prior guidance of $12–$13 billion, with an annualized exit rate of $18–$19 billion.
Outlook
Bernstein expects CRWV to sign approximately $45 billion in incremental deals by end-2027, with revenue diverging from consensus in 2027 and falling roughly 15% below in 2028.
Recommended Securities
- CoreWeave (CRWV.US): Rating Underperform; target price $67, based on 28.4x 2027E adjusted EBIT per share of $5.81. Current price ~$90 implies approximately 26% downside.
Key exhibits
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