Citi Global Hardware: iPhone 18 Supply Chain Implications Ahead
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Citi expects the iPhone 18 lineup on September 9 (US time), with the first foldable — possibly named iPhone Ultra — starting above US$2,000 and iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max priced roughly US$200 higher than predecessors. Apple analyst Atif Malik models CY2H26 iPhone 18 shipments of 61.8 million units and CY26 iPhone volume of 246 million (+1% YoY), below August supply-chain build plans of 81 million/264 million. All 2H26 iPhone 18 models are high-end (versus 68 million Pro/Pro Max in 2H25); the Fold carries a 7.5 million 2H26 production plan, with modeled CY2H26/CY1Q27 Fold sales of 5 million/2.3 million and CY27 iPhone volume of 263 million (+7%). Key upgrades include the 2nm A20 chip, variable-aperture main cameras and Apple's in-house baseband. Foxconn assembles all Fold/Pro/Pro Max (61% 2H26 share versus 67% at initial 2H25 launch; Luxshare ~33% versus 27%). Citi favors share and content gainers — Lens Technology (UTG/CPI film), Lingyi iTech (hinge structures, ultra-thin vapor chambers, battery cases), Amphenol (hinge modules), Largan, Sunny Optical, AAC, Alps Alpine, Kioxia, Luxshare and TSMC — while flagging share losses for Qualcomm's baseband and JCET in SiP. Covered stocks carry Buy ratings (Kioxia: High Risk Buy); listed prices are prior-day closes, with no target prices.