CITIC Futures Agriculture Strategy Daily
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CITIC Futures' agriculture daily sweeps oils, protein meals, corn, live hogs, natural and synthetic rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, double-offset paper and logs. Most products are range-trading under overlapping macro, weather and supply-demand influences. Palm oil keeps a near-weak/far-strong structure, with destocking expectations partly digested and limited rebound room; soybean meal is testing support as Brazilian planting accelerates and a bumper US soybean harvest is confirmed; corn futures and spot have diverged under supply pressure; hog supply remains ample with prices depressed as the cycle grinds along the bottom; natural rubber's bullish fever has cooled and prices are adjusting lower; firm seed-cotton costs support cotton but hedging pressure weighs; sugar stays firm overseas on the super El Nino; and pulp sits at the lower edge of its band. Medium term, El Nino poses downside production risk for oils, the hog cycle trough may not turn until end-2026, and cotton could fall before recovering in Q4. Tactics: trade oils on dips and rallies; soybean meal - buy calls and puts to go long volatility, sell rapeseed meal rallies; hog producers can sell hedges into strength and write out-of-the-money calls.
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