UBS China Medtech: Expert Call Takeaways on the Medical Imaging Equipment Market
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Based on an expert call, UBS analyzed China's medical imaging equipment market, noting that Q4 2025 procurement activity remained largely stable year-on-year. The data shows 768 CT projects (-2.3%), 329 MRI projects (-0.9%), 256 DR projects (+8.5%), and 228 ultrasound projects (+8.1%). A notable disconnect exists between procurement volumes and corporate financial results due to a 4.5-month average revenue recognition lag and elevated project cancellation rates in 2025. Multinational corporations like GE HealthCare and Siemens Healthineers slightly recovered market share in Q4 2025, while domestic players United Imaging and notably Neusoft experienced share declines. By volume in 2025, United Imaging led the CT market at 28.46%, whereas Siemens Healthineers topped MRI at 25.68%. Mindray dominated the ultrasound segment with a 30.6% share. The expert projects 5-10% procurement volume growth for 2026-2027, though total end-market prices may decline by less than 5%. Approximately RMB 20 billion in special government bonds is expected to fund medical equipment purchases in 2026. Volume-Based Procurement (VBP) penetration may eventually reach 30-35%, up from approximately 20% in 2025.