Bernstein US Industrials & Tech: The Data Center Project Pipeline — Capacity, Construction & Cancellations (Jun '26)
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Bernstein's June 2026 data center capacity tracker reveals a North American project pipeline totaling 338 GW, representing a 4% month-over-month increase (+14 GW) and a 179% year-over-year surge. Hyperscalers contributed 3.5 GW of this growth, driven predominantly by Google (+1.8 GW) and Amazon (+1.4 GW), while developers and colocation providers added 2.2 GW and 2 GW, respectively.
Under-construction capacity edged up 200 MW to 63.2 GW, with colocation, crypto, and developers serving as primary contributors. However, hyperscalers and cloud-native firms collectively reduced construction by 1 GW. Stranded capacity rose 4 GW to 38 GW, comprising 11% of the total pipeline, up from last summer's 7-9%, though the growth rate is stabilizing. At current construction speeds, clearing the entire pipeline would require 12 years, compared to 10 years last month.
Behind-the-meter (BTM) pipeline capacity grew 1% to 131 GW. BTM projects accounted for only 12% of June's pipeline additions, down from a year-to-date average of 36%. The report estimates substantial total addressable markets for electrical equipment OEMs based on current pipeline data, citing PWR at $4.6 trillion, VRT at $1 trillion, and ETN at $791 billion. Bernstein maintains Outperform ratings on ETN (target $534), NVDA (target $315), and DLR (target $232), while assigning Market Perform ratings to CAT (target $1,002) and INTC (target $100).
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