Goldman Sachs Asia Pacific Portfolio Strategy: Korea — Attractive Shareholder Returns Backed by Strong Fundamentals and Policy Support
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Goldman Sachs argues shareholder returns are becoming an increasingly important driver of Korean equity performance, complementing earnings growth and helping repair the market's historically weak capital-return image. Policy momentum includes the Value-up program, dividend tax benefits, and 2026 tax reform proposals for FY2027 (buyback tax clarification and a productive-finance ISA), shifting the regime from voluntary disclosure toward harder economic accountability. On fundamentals, consensus earnings keep being revised up; Goldman Sachs raised forecasts again to 350% Korean earnings growth in 2026 and a further 35% in 2027 (Taiwan: 62%/30%), while non-financial listed companies should hold over KRW800trn cash this fiscal year - nearly 15% of KOSPI market cap - with free cash flow at unprecedented levels. Consequently, 2026-27E dividends plus buybacks could lift total shareholder-return yield to roughly 5% in 2026 and 8% in 2027 (assuming SK Hynix and Samsung distribute 50% of FCF). Buybacks have accelerated in 2026 and treasury-share cancellations keep rising; 84 of 258 KOSPI companies offer NTM dividend yields above 4%, and an unusually high share trade below book value. Suggested alpha themes: dividend-tax beneficiaries, top-30 KOSPI 200 cancellation candidates (median ~0.8x forward P/B, ~3% yield), deep NAV-discount holding companies, and wide preferred-share discounts. No index targets or individual ratings were given.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
Exhibit 3
Exhibit 4
Exhibit 5
Exhibit 6
Exhibit 7
Exhibit 8
