Has the Market Fallen Enough?
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CICC's report, 'Has the Market Fallen Enough?', examines 2026 market trajectory and the momentum following the '924' policy package. It argues that 2026 faces multiple challenges, including pressure on earnings-per-share growth and a complex macroeconomic environment, while stressing that policy support is critical to stabilizing the market. Analysts see 2026 momentum as somewhat weaker than 2025's, but structural adjustment and the application of new technologies such as AI still leave room for recovery.
The report highlights Pledged Supplementary Lending as a support channel for property and infrastructure, with 2026 PSL scale projected at RMB 550 billion, and views AI applications—DeepSeek cited as an example—as key drivers of productivity and market efficiency. CICC forecasts GDP growth of 4.7% in 2026, slowing from 5.1% in 2025, and expects the property market, after a prolonged adjustment, to show signs of stabilization in 2027. Overall, it frames 2026 as a tug-of-war between macro deceleration and policy stimulus, with PSL liquidity injections and AI-driven industrial upgrading offsetting fading traditional growth drivers to lay the foundation for a 2027 recovery, toward which CICC remains cautiously optimistic. No specific stocks were recommended.