UBS: Uranium - Increased Focus on Energy Diversification
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UBS updated its uranium supply and demand model to reflect sustained demand momentum alongside refined primary supply databases. The firm maintains a progressively optimistic outlook on the nuclear power theme, driven by the ongoing energy crisis, yet lowered its 2026 uranium price forecast by 2% to USD 88 per pound.
On the demand side, multiple incremental catalysts support the thesis. The United States nuclear revival advances through the DOE UPRISE program and streamlined NRC approvals, including the TerraPower Natrium reactor. China's 15th Five-Year Plan draft reaffirms a 110GW nuclear target by 2030, while Cameco signed a long-term agreement with India to supply 22 million pounds of yellowcake over nine years. Supply developments include NXG receiving construction licenses and Kazatomprom guiding a 9% production increase for 2026.
Spot uranium prices recently retreated to approximately USD 85 per pound, though long-term contract prices rose to USD 93 per pound. UBS forecasts uranium prices of USD 95, 100, 105, and 110 per pound for 2027 through 2030, respectively. The firm designates NexGen Energy as its top uranium pick with a Buy rating and target prices of C$20 and A$21 per share, supported by a strong catalyst pathway over the next 12 to 18 months. Cameco, Paladin Energy, and Boss Energy are all rated Neutral.