Asia Emerging Robotics: The Barometer (November/December 2025)
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Bernstein's November/December 2025 robotics barometer tracks accelerating momentum in the humanoid robotics sector. Reports indicate the US government is considering a 2026 robotics executive order, framing humanoid robots as a new frontier in US-China technological competition. Tesla and Figure released videos showcasing running robots. However, a Tesla Optimus unit stumbling during a demonstration raised questions regarding true autonomy.
Chinese firms demonstrated tangible progress. Unitree robots performed on stage, while AgiBot and UBTech disclosed cumulative production of 5,000 and 1,000 humanoid units, respectively. Market sentiment rebounded sharply in December after a sluggish November, pushing humanoid robotics valuation premiums to record highs by late December. However, Bernstein believes market expectations for Tesla's Optimus are overly optimistic, driven by unverified supply chain rumors and the anticipated Gen 3 release.
Among covered companies, Shuanghuan Transmission, Hesai Technology, and Tuopu Group hold Outperform ratings, supported by robust xEV wholesale growth. Sanhua Intelligent Controls is rated Market-Perform despite projecting 25-50% net profit growth for 2025. Leaderdrive is rated Underperform.