China Steel Exports Down 4.4% YoY in First Seven Months of 2026; Haitong International Maintains Outperform
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Key Views
For the week of August 3–7, social steel inventories climbed to 11.99 million tons and mill inventories to 4.54 million tons, while the blast furnace operating rate at 247 mills nationwide rose to 82.32%. Weekly total steel output slipped to 8.06 million tons. June crude steel output growth turned positive year on year for the first time (+0.4%), yet first-half ferrous-sector profits totaled RMB 31.8 billion, down 25%, with about 60% of mills still loss-making.
Outlook
Haitong International maintains its Outperform rating on the sector, arguing that rising industry concentration is inevitable and that mills with superior product mix and cost positions will benefit most. Policy-driven supply cuts could accelerate the recovery; risks include slower capacity reduction and a sharp downturn in demand.
Recommended Securities
Baoshan Iron & Steel, Hunan Valin Steel, Shougang, Fangda Special Steel, Xinyu Iron & Steel, CITIC Special Steel, Jiuli Special Materials, plus upstream plays such as Dazhong Mining and Baotou Steel.