Goldman Sachs Oil Analyst: Raising Price Forecast on Lower OECD Inventories Amidst Hormuz Disruptions

Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecasts upward following severe disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has surged 34% year-to-date to $82 per barrel, driven by a collapse in strait transit volumes, damaged energy infrastructure, and storage congestion that forced Iraqi production cuts of nearly 1.5 million barrels per day. The bank now projects Q2 2026 Brent crude to average $76 per barrel, a $10 increase from its previous forecast, while WTI is raised by $9 to $71 per barrel. This revision relies on two primary assumptions. First, exports through the strait will remain at extremely depressed levels, roughly 15% of normal capacity, for five days during March before recovering over 28 days, leading to a sharp drawdown in OECD inventories and the loss of approximately 200 million barrels of Middle Eastern production. Second, heightened geopolitical uncertainty will sustain a risk premium. Q4 2026 Brent and WTI forecasts are adjusted upward to $66 and $62, respectively. The bank notes that risks remain substantially skewed to the upside. Should the disruptions persist for an additional five weeks, Brent could reach $100 per barrel.