Goldman Sachs Equity Strategy: 2026 Tech Tonic — A Broadening Bull Market
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Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer notes that in 2025, nearly all major equity markets outperformed the United States on both a local currency and a US dollar basis. Global equity valuations currently sit at historical highs, supported by modest earnings growth. Looking into 2026, the report suggests that while global equities still have upside potential, US markets may slightly underperform their global peers.
The bank's top-down earnings models forecast solid growth across major indices for 2026, estimating EPS growth of 12% for the S&P 500, 5% for the STOXX 600, 9% for the TOPIX, and 16% for MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan. Correspondingly, Goldman Sachs has set specific return targets: the S&P 500 is targeted at 7,600 points, implying a 13% total return, while the STOXX 600 is projected at 615 points for a 10% local currency return.
A critical theme is the broadening of the bull market. Market breadth is expanding, evidenced by diverging value and growth styles between the US and Europe, where European value stocks have demonstrated greater relative strength. Furthermore, declining pairwise correlations across major indices suggest a more favorable environment for active stock selection. Notably, the correlation among major AI hyperscalers has dropped significantly, falling below 20% by October 2025, which further diversifies sector leadership and enhances opportunities for active management.