Goldman Sachs on BYD (002594.SZ / 1211.HK): Q3 Preview — Share Gains Drive Sequential Improvement; Policy Risks Manageable
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Abstract
Goldman Sachs expects BYD (002594.SZ, 1211.HK) to post Q3 2026 revenue of RMB 242.9 billion, up 25% year-over-year and 25% quarter-over-quarter, with net profit of RMB 11.5 billion, up 47% and 39%, respectively. Growth is driven by volumes of 1.321 million units and a richer mix of flash-charging models lifting blended ASP; domestic NEV retail share has climbed to 25%.
Key debates center on policy: the EU has imposed a cap on imports of Chinese hybrids, though localized production is exempt, and BYD's Hungary plant is expected to start production by end-2026. A cut in the export VAT rebate rate from 13% to 9% will affect 2027 earnings—an estimated 4% impact assuming 67% cost pass-through, with the range spanning 4%–13%. Goldman views these risks as manageable given BYD's technology moat and overseas capacity footprint, maintaining Buy ratings with a target of RMB 137 for the A-shares and HKD 134 for the H-shares. Longer term, it projects overseas profit contribution rising to 88% and total sales of 7.2 million units by 2030.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
