Bernstein: China WFE Import Tracker (Jan-Feb 2026) — YoY -23%, Likely a CNY Distortion
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Bernstein tracks China's wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) imports using customs data, reporting $4.1 billion in January-February 2026, a 23% year-over-year decline. However, analysts attribute this drop to Lunar New Year monthly distortions and maintain their forecast for full-year 2026 imports to remain flat versus 2025. By category, lithography plunged 32%, deposition fell 13%, dry etch declined 8%, and process control dropped 40%. Geographically, equipment sourced from the US, Malaysia, and Singapore fared better at -11% compared to Japan at -37% and the Netherlands at -33%. Province-level shifts reveal a significant structural transition: Beijing's share of imports surged from 12% to 32%, indicating major new project ramps, while Guangdong's share collapsed from 26% to 4%. Regression models predict mixed quarterly results for global suppliers. TEL and Kokusai likely outperformed, while LRCX, KLAC, Screen, and Advantest may report weaker China revenue. NAURA, AMEC, Piotech, Tokyo Electron, Kokusai, Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLAC, and ASML maintain Outperform ratings. Screen and Advantest are rated Market-Perform. Bernstein awaits March data to confirm underlying demand trends.