Morgan Stanley: Concerns Already Priced In, Awaiting Catalysts — Range-Bound Trading
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Key Views
Horizon Robotics positions itself as the automotive industry's "Wintel," providing compute and software stacks rather than competing directly as an OEM. Its competitive edge stems from scaled commercial execution rather than proprietary technologies such as world models, VLA, or reinforcement learning. The Chery iCAR integrated smart driving and cabin solution serves as a reference case for broader adoption.
Outlook
Shares are expected to remain range-bound, constrained by weak H1 performance, absent near-term catalysts, and unclear per-vehicle value under the hardware-to-licensing transition. While negative factors appear largely priced in, breakthrough catalysts include J6/Journey 6P volume ramp, iCAR expansion to mainstream models, and quantification of project wins from core clients like BYD. Morgan Stanley projects revenue growing from RMB 3.758 billion in 2025 to RMB 13.300 billion in 2028, with EPS improving from a loss of RMB 0.81 to a profit of RMB 0.08.
Recommended Securities
- BYD (002594.SZ, 1211.HK): Rated Overweight; prices as of July 14, 2026 were RMB 90.18 and HKD 86.15.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
