UBS: NVIDIA F4Q:26 (Jan) Earnings Preview: Set-Up Still Favorable, PT to $245
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
UBS maintains a Buy rating on NVIDIA, raising the target price from $235 to $245 ahead of its fiscal fourth quarter 2026 results. Despite flat recent share performance, the firm highlights a favorable earnings setup supported by bullish supply chain signals. UBS projects F4Q revenue of approximately $67.5 billion, exceeding guidance by roughly $2.5 billion, and FQ1 revenue near $76 billion, above investor consensus of $74-$75 billion.
Leveraging supply chain findings, UBS increased its global TSMC CoWoS capacity estimate to 120,000 wafers per month by late 2026, with NVIDIA as a primary beneficiary. Consequently, UBS raised its GPU shipment estimates to 5.7 million units for 2025 and 9 million for 2026. Earnings estimates were revised upward, projecting EPS of $9.11, $12.08, and $12.92 for fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with revenues reaching roughly $381 billion and $509 billion in fiscal 2026 and 2027.
US Big 4 hyperscalers added approximately $140 billion in capital expenditure consensus during the current earnings season, bringing 2026 growth to roughly 60%, while sovereign demand remains nascent. The $245 target price is based on 20x the fiscal 2027 EPS estimate. While investors question the sustainability of the 75% gross margin due to competitive threats from Google and Broadcom TPUs, UBS expects management to address these concerns alongside CUDA moat discussions during the upcoming earnings call and GTC. Inventory channels still offer additional growth runway.