BofA: The Flow Show — Fade Runner
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Key Views
Despite sharp price corrections—SOX down 20% and SOXL down 55% from peaks—semiconductor positioning remains overcrowded. The eight largest semiconductor ETFs absorbed $2.3 billion in the past week and $46 billion year-to-date (31% of assets under management). Tech funds saw a record $48 billion inflow over three weeks. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.75%, its first hike since 2023, with a stronger won signaling tightening financial conditions.
Year-to-date performance is highly divergent: commodities lead at +49.0%, crude oil +38.2%, international equities +12.3%, and the S&P 500 +10.1%, while gold fell 8.3% and Bitcoin dropped 26.9%.
Outlook
BofA flags the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) as the critical tactical indicator. A break below $65 would trigger a broader market pullback, pressuring cyclicals such as banks, brokers, and industrials. Conversely, a breakout above $70 would serve as the best signal to add risk. Bank stocks across the US, Europe, the UK, and Japan are trading at multi-year or all-time highs. Weekly equity inflows reached $55.8 billion, while bonds extended their streak to 64 consecutive weeks of inflows ($20 billion).
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
Exhibit 3
Exhibit 4
Exhibit 5
Exhibit 6
Exhibit 7
Exhibit 8
