Goldman Sachs: Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810.KS): 4Q25 Review: Awaiting Further Value-Up Details; Buy
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Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (SFM) reported 4Q25 net profit of KRW 234 billion, in line with Goldman Sachs estimates but 16% below Bloomberg consensus. Underwriting profit declined 14% year-on-year, driven by widening auto insurance losses and increased medical and property-related claims in long-term insurance. The risk loss ratio rose 9.8 percentage points, reflecting deeper unfavorable claim variance.
The CSM balance stood at KRW 14.2 trillion, broadly flat year-on-year. A large negative adjustment of KRW 1.287 trillion, stemming from actuarial assumption updates and higher education taxes, offset underlying growth. The dividend payout ratio increased to 41.1% for 2025, with DPS rising 2.6% to KRW 19,500, though below Goldman's KRW 22,000 forecast.
Management expects 2026 premium rate adjustments to ease profitability pressure. Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating and 12-month target price of KRW 550,000, based on 0.90x one-year forward P/B (GGM model). While 2026–2028 earnings estimates were trimmed by an average of 0.7%, the target price remains unchanged due to higher book value.
Goldman highlights SFM's industry-leading solvency ratio (K-ICS at 263%) as providing ample capacity to enhance shareholder returns. The government's Corporate Value-Up program and proposed mandatory treasury stock cancellation legislation, expected to advance through the Democratic Party's plenary session on February 24, could accelerate return improvements. Anticipated value-up refinements include a 50% dividend payout ratio, 220% K-ICS target, and treasury stock ratio below 5%. Improved visibility on capital returns should support valuation re-rating over time.