JPMorgan on LVMH (LVMH.PA): Q3 2026 Sales Preview and Further Forecast Cuts
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Ahead of LVMH's Q3 trading update (date TBC; October 14 last year), JPMorgan trims estimates 2-3% overall and cuts its price target from EUR580 to EUR525, rolling the basis to December 2028, as lower SOTP multiples and a DCF medium-term growth assumption reduced from 5% to 4% are only partly offset by the one-year roll. Summer data points indicate sequential sales deceleration on tougher comps and a deteriorating China macro backdrop; the US remains healthy in absolute terms but should slow from a strong Q2, with results highly polarized — Zegna flagged similar dynamics at its H1 results. Q3 Fashion & Leather Goods organic growth is cut from +1% to -2%, driven by a Chinese-national spend assumption slashed from -2% to -10%; American spend eases to +5% and other nationalities to -5%. Segment calls: Watches & Jewellery +7% ex-FX, Selective Retailing +5%, Wines & Spirits +1%, Perfumes & Cosmetics -1%; group sales of EUR18.45bn (+1% organic) with F&LG revenue of EUR8.429bn. The shares (EUR415.30 on September 11) trade at just 16x 2027E price-to-earnings on JPMorgan numbers, a fresh low that limits further downside; with estimates 3-4% below consensus and no re-rating catalyst in sight, the Neutral rating is retained.