J.P. Morgan: Hong Kong Property & Conglomerates: Results Preview: Kickstarting the Earnings Upcycle
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Key Views
CK Hutchison and CK Asset are projected to post over 100% earnings growth driven by UKPN disposal gains; stripping those out, CKH rises 11% on higher Cenovus oil prices while CKA falls 6% on low-margin Hong Kong residential bookings. Henderson Land surges 42% on The Legacy project (over 50% gross margin), and Swire Properties gains 13% on Hong Kong residential completions. SHKP grows 5%, with upside risk if project margins beat expectations. Jardine Matheson rises 3% despite Astra's drag.
Among landlords, HKL climbs 10%, Wharf REIC edges up 2%, and Link REIT is flat on cost savings. Hang Lung's core net profit dips 2% on lower interest capitalization (non-cash). Sino Land falls 8%, and NWD remains in net loss, though losses may narrow on high-margin projects.
Dividend certainty is high: all companies except NWD at least maintain payouts, with SHKP, HKL, and CKH expected to grow dividends around 5%.
Recommended Securities
- Link REIT (823 HK) — top landlord pick - HKL (HKL SP) — top landlord pick, 10% core profit growth - Swire Properties (1972 HK) — top landlord pick, 13% growth - SHKP (16 HK) — top developer pick, 5% earnings growth - CK Hutchison (1 HK) — top conglomerate, 11% ex-UKPN growth - Jardine Matheson (JM SP) — top conglomerate, 3%
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
Exhibit 3
