Goldman Sachs – Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart: MXAPJ Falls Another 1% as Rising Oil and US Rates Drive Outflows and Pressure Cyclicals; Asia's Concentration Keeps Rising but Divergence Is Stark
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Key Points
- Goldman forecasts a +20% five-year basis earnings CAGR for MXAPJ tech hardware and semiconductors (bull +28%, bear +9%).
- US cloud and hyperscaler capex should keep rising through 2030, exceeding $6tn cumulatively over 2026–2030.
- The 12-month MXAPJ target stands at 1,120.
Goldman favors a more targeted approach: North Asia tech exposure, plus AI, power, non-tech earnings compounders and shareholder-return themes. Overweights span capital goods, tech hardware and semis, internet, metals and mining, real estate, retail/durables and telecom. Pair trades: long strong vs weak EPS revisions (GSSZS/WERV) and long AI hardware/semis vs MXAPJ (GSSZAIHW/SM).
Key exhibits
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