Goldman Sachs Oil Tracker: Dated Brent Jumps on Further Physical Tightening
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Dated Brent surged $13 to $141 per barrel today, reaching the highest level since 2008 as the physical market tightened at an unprecedented pace amid extremely low flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The spread between dated Brent and the nearest financial futures contract hit a record $32, driven by extreme backwardation that reflects market expectations of a potentially short-lived disruption.
Front-month Brent and WTI futures climbed 8% and 11% respectively, though equity markets recovered following reports that Iran and Oman are preparing an agreement to secure safe passage through the strait. Flow, inventory, and pricing data all confirm the physical market is tightening at a record rate of 10–11 million barrels per day on a global basis. Estimated exports through the Strait of Hormuz stand at just 6% of normal levels.
Geopolitical risks remain elevated. A fuel oil tanker was attacked near the Qatari coast near Ras Laffan, marking the second such incident this week. Iran also struck the Erbil refinery for a second time, underscoring persistent infrastructure risks across the Middle East.
Prediction markets imply a 42% probability that the Iran conflict ends by mid-May, up six percentage points since Monday. President Trump indicated the war would last two to three weeks, broadly consistent with the upper end of a four-to-six-week timeframe previously discussed by the White House. Options markets assign a 19% probability that Brent June contract expiry exceeds $100 per barrel.