UBS: MiniMax Group – Leading Global AI Foundation Model Developer; Initiate at Buy
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UBS initiates coverage of MiniMax Group with a Buy rating and a target price of HK$1,000, implying an 18% upside from the current share price of HK$847. MiniMax is one of the world's first publicly listed foundation model companies, developing proprietary frontier AI models, consumer AI-native applications, and an open platform for enterprises and developers.
UBS highlights three competitive advantages: differentiated multimodal technology leadership from inception, superior R&D efficiency with inference MFU exceeding 75% versus an industry average of 40-50%, and rapid commercialization progress. The firm forecasts robust revenue growth, with a CAGR of 232% from 2025 to 2027. Revenue is projected to reach US$73 million in 2025, US$209 million in 2026, and US$809 million in 2027. The open platform business is expected to grow faster than AI-native applications, increasing its revenue share from 32% in 2025 to 49% by 2027. Gross margins are forecast to expand from 22% to 43% over the same period, driven by improved inference efficiency and scale effects.
Despite a premium valuation of 125x P/ARR based on December 2026 ARR of US$318 million, UBS believes rapid revenue scaling will absorb valuation multiples. Key risks include macroeconomic, regulatory, and geopolitical uncertainties, alongside intensifying competition.