UBS: Semiconductor Industry Inflection Signals Emerge; Inficon Well Positioned to Benefit
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UBS identifies multiple positive signals for Inficon's semiconductor business, which accounts for roughly 50% of group sales. Supply chain companies VAT and ASM reported fourth-quarter 2025 order intake significantly above consensus, with growth accelerating in December, suggesting the industry is approaching an inflection point. TSMC raised its three-year capital expenditure outlook to $52 to 56 billion and increased its growth targets. Semiconductor DRAM contract prices surged over 50% quarter-over-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, indicating rising demand against constrained supply.
Based on these signals, UBS upgraded Inficon's 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts by 6 to 11% and raised the target price from CHF 115 to CHF 130, maintaining a Buy rating. UBS projects global semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment capex will grow 22% year-over-year to $136.5 billion in 2026, with a further 6% increase to $145 billion in 2027. AI-related spending could push WFE meaningfully above $150 billion by 2027. The firm forecasts 10% growth in chip unit volumes for 2026, driving fab utilization higher and triggering fresh equipment orders.
Inficon benefits from chip miniaturization trends, as its sensors and software see increasing demand from rising precision requirements. Historically, Inficon's semiconductor sales have outpaced end markets by 300 to 600 basis points during cycles. The stock trades at approximately 29 times 2027 estimated earnings, broadly in line with historical averages. UBS views Inficon as one of the fastest-growing names in its Swiss small- and mid-cap coverage, supporting continued shareholder value creation. Downside risks include semiconductor cycle downturns and intensifying competition.