Adding SpaceX to the Space 60
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Key Views
SpaceX is the world's largest orbital launch provider by count and mass, having completed approximately 650 orbital launches at a 99% success rate, largely using reused Falcon boosters. The transition to Starship—with over four times Falcon 9's payload capacity—is expected to reduce launch costs to roughly $500/kg by 2030 and below $150/kg by 2040. Starlink operates the largest satellite constellation in history, with over 10,000 active satellites serving approximately 12 million broadband subscribers across 160+ countries, while its direct-to-cell service reaches around 7.4 million monthly active devices.
The report projects SpaceX revenue of $45 billion in 2026, $319 billion in 2030, and $3.3 trillion by 2040. However, annual capital expenditure could reach approximately $300 billion through 2031, creating execution, financing, and regulatory risks.
Index Changes
New additions include HawkEye 360 (Overweight, $41 target), Applied Aerospace & Defense (Equal-weight, $23 target), and Satellogic. Removed names are Qorvo, Iridium, Globalstar, and Teck Resources, all due to acquisitions or mergers.
Recommended Securities
- SpaceX (SPCX): Overweight, $300 target—launch and satellite dominance underpinning AI infrastructure potential.
- HawkEye 360 (HAWK): Overweight, $41 target—profitable RF data provider with a risk-reward ratio of approximately 3.5.
- Applied Aerospace & Defense (AADX): Equal-weight, $23 target—defense cycle beneficiary balanced by integration risk.
- Satellogic (SATL): Added to index, not yet covered.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
Exhibit 3
Exhibit 4
Exhibit 5
Exhibit 6
Exhibit 7
Exhibit 8
