Morgan Stanley China EVs: Weekly Orders Drifting on Fading Sentiment Before Summer Lull
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Morgan Stanley's weekly China EV order tracker for June 22–27 reveals divergent performance across major brands as the initial enthusiasm from recent model launches fades ahead of the seasonal summer slowdown. Year-end promotional pushes to meet second-quarter sales targets should briefly lift late-June orders before a demand air pocket emerges in July.
Li Auto (2015.HK / LI.O) outperformed peers, with weekly orders surging 75% week over week to 11.4–11.6k, driven by the 2026 L8 launch, representing approximately 50% year-over-year growth. Xiaomi (1810.HK) held steady at 7.0–7.2k orders, up 98% year over year, while HIMA brands remained flat at 15.3–15.8k.
BYD (1211.HK / 002594.SZ) orders declined 30% week over week to 72.7–73.2k, normalizing from elevated levels following the Tang launch. NIO (9866.HK / NIO.N) dropped 8% to 13.0–13.2k, though up 160% year over year. XPeng (9868.HK / XPEV.N) fell 8% to 6.6–6.8k, with attention shifting to the Mona M03 debut on July 2. Leapmotor, Tesla China, Geely Galaxy, and Zeekr also posted weekly declines.
Morgan Stanley maintains its In-Line rating on the China auto and shared mobility sector.