Citi: Korea Economics: 2026 Current Account Surplus Forecast Raised to 18.9% of GDP
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Citi raised its 2026 Korea current account surplus forecast to 18.9% of GDP from 18.3%, citing a semiconductor upcycle that extends through 2H26. Seasonally adjusted semiconductor exports hit a fresh record in August, with year-on-year growth accelerating to 209% (July: 179%; June: 200%), while computer/SSD exports expanded 419% (July: 404%). August's goods trade surplus reached USD 34.7bn, extending record strength (July: USD 30.4bn) and in line with Citi's estimate; total exports grew 68.7% y/y (July: 63.0%) as import growth slowed to 22.5% (July: 26.5%). By destination, exports to the US rose 89%, to China 119% and to ASEAN 75%; auto exports fell 29.8% on strikes and summer holidays. Citi projects 2026 semiconductor export growth of about 177% (2025: 22%), with 3Q26 at 197%, slowing to 181% in 4Q26 and 90% in 1Q27 on base effects. Citing its equity research, the note says Samsung Electronics customers show interest in multi-year memory agreements beyond its 60-70% capacity lock-up target, while SK Hynix benchmarks LTAs at 50% of capacity—supporting the durability of export and surplus strength. No ratings or target prices were given.