UBS Theme Parks, Toys and Fitness Crowded Stocks: What the Quant Data Says, Volume 2
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UBS's quantitative team leverages proprietary positioning data — prime brokerage balances, securities lending, 13F filings and internal datasets — to score crowding across theme park, toy and fitness stocks. As of early October 2026, PTON and PLNT ranked as the most crowded long positions in coverage, while MTN and XPOF were the most crowded shorts. Over the past three months, PRKS and PLNT showed the largest positive changes in crowding scores, whereas FUN, PTON and Hasbro (HAS) saw the steepest declines. The toy industry's crowding score has fallen below the consumer discretionary benchmark since June 2026, turning the gap negative, and US fitness crowding has mostly lagged the MSCI North America consumer discretionary benchmark over 2020-2026. Combining crowding level, change and one-month momentum into a three-factor framework, momentum across the three sectors appeared largely neutral as of September 2026. UBS notes that crowding alone is not a reliable predictor of returns. Ratings as listed: Buy on HAS ($94.73), LTH ($40.37), MAT ($16.76), PTON ($5.14), PLNT ($47.89) and FUN ($11.92); Neutral on CALY ($13.70), PRKS ($33.77), MTN ($147.00) and XPOF ($4.81).
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
Exhibit 3
Exhibit 4
Exhibit 5
Exhibit 6
Exhibit 7
Exhibit 8
Exhibit 9
Exhibit 10
Exhibit 11
