Morgan Stanley European Leisure & Hotels: Earnings Preview and Peer Benchmarking, Weekend Replay Issue 1,162
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Morgan Stanley's latest European leisure and hotels 'Weekend Replay' (issue 1,162) previews earnings across Whitbread, Entain, FDJ, Sodexo, Evolution, Royal Caribbean, IHG, Accor, Scandic and JD Wetherspoon. The analysts forecast Whitbread H1 pre-tax profit of £275 million, down 13% year-on-year; Entain Q3 online NGR up 6% at constant currency; FDJ Q3 revenue of €827 million, down 4%; IHG Q3 RevPAR growth of 4.0% with 5.0% net unit growth; Accor Q3 RevPAR up 3.4% on €1.42 billion of total sales; Evolution Q3 revenue of €517 million (+2%) and EBITDA of €340 million (-2%); Royal Caribbean Q3 EPS of $6.38, slightly above the top of guidance; JD Wetherspoon Q1 like-for-like sales up 8%; and Scandic Q3 RevPAR up 3.7% with adjusted EBITDA of SEK 1.29 billion. The sector view stays Attractive, but fuel-cost pressure, macro effects on yields, regulatory events and cost control remain key watch items. For 2027, Royal Caribbean's Q4 implied yield guidance looks pressured and early signals may point to downside risk to consensus, while Accor should reiterate FY26 guidance and hint at the upper half of its RevPAR and EBITDA ranges. Ratings: Royal Caribbean Equal-weight, $300 target; Accor Overweight, €56 target; JD Wetherspoon Underweight.
Key exhibits
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