Goldman Sachs China Consumer Staples Cost Index Tracker: Feb 2026 — PET Cost Emerges as Key Focus, Up 26% YTD and 12% YoY
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Goldman Sachs reports that PET prices have become the primary focus in its February 2026 China Consumer Staples Cost Index Tracker. As of March 10, 2026, PET spot prices surged over 26% year-to-date and 12% year-over-year, primarily driven by rising global oil prices. PET constitutes 17%–30% of cost of goods sold for pure-play beverage companies, while impacting other staples at high-single to low-double digit percentages.
A 12% year-over-year PET increase could push the food and beverage cost index up approximately 3%. Dairy, seasonings, pet food, and frozen food indices may see roughly 1% inflation, while the impact on beer remains limited. Notably, aluminum prices rose about 20% year-to-date, representing 10%–25% of brewer costs.
Several covered companies have partially mitigated this pressure. Uni-President, Tingyi, and Eastroc have locked in PET costs or maintain inventory buffers through late Q2 to Q3 2026. Nongfu Spring has similar hedges. Conversely, raw milk supply-demand dynamics continue improving, with herd size declining 4.3% year-over-year in January 2026. Barley import prices are expected to decline by mid-to-high single digits for 2026.
Goldman Sachs highlights geopolitical tensions and the duration of oil price inflation as critical variables heading into the peak season. Historically, Chinese PET prices exhibit a 0.5 correlation with global crude oil, typically reflecting crude movements with a one-to-two-month lag.