Goldman Sachs — Uni-President China (0220.HK): 1H 2026 Review, Q2 Net Profit In Line
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Goldman Sachs reviews Uni-President China's (0220.HK) first-half 2026 results, with Q2 net profit in line with expectations. Gross margin reached 35.0% and EBIT margin 10.4%, beating Goldman's 34.7%/10.2% forecasts on cost locking, procurement advantages, and promotion discipline. Beverage gross margin was 39.9% (+0.5pp yoy) and food 28.5% (+1.7pp), aided by mix optimization, higher capacity utilization, and five months of PET and sugar cost tailwinds, partly offset by rising PET prices from May. Food EBIT rose 34% yoy with margin up 1.0pp to 4.5%. The energy drink and nut milk lines grew double digits, with 2026 energy drink sales expected at Rmb350–400m versus Rmb250m in 2025; value-retailer channel sales grew 70–80% (about 10% of sales). Management is cautious on second-half beverage trends but expects sequential improvement, while PET is the biggest cost uncertainty. Goldman trimmed 2026–28 revenue forecasts by 1–2% and raised earnings up to 2%, modeling 2026 net profit of about Rmb2.25bn (+10% yoy). Second-half revenue growth of about 4% is modeled, with PET assumed at about Rmb7,000 in 2H26 versus Rmb5,500–5,600 a year earlier. Neutral rating maintained with an unchanged HK$8.80 target price, implying 19.9% upside from HK$7.34 and 8.1%/8.3% dividend yields for 2026/27E.