Nomura Expert Call: EVs Should Regain Market Momentum in the Months Ahead
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Nomura hosted an expert call assessing the Chinese electric vehicle landscape, concluding that EVs are poised to regain market momentum over the coming months. Post-Lunar New Year market activity has visibly recovered, primarily driven by government subsidies, ultra-fast charging technology upgrades, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Notably, order volumes for vehicles priced around RMB 100,000 have rebounded to roughly 50% of last year's averages, a stark improvement from the sluggish 10-20% range observed in January and February.
Despite this rebound, automakers face significant inventory pressures, with dealerships carrying nearly two months of stock. Consequently, OEMs are deliberately slowing new model launches to clear existing inventory. First-half demand will rely heavily on policy stimuli and promotional incentives, while second-half performance hinges on genuine new model competitiveness.
BYD remains the definitive market leader, leveraging its Blade Battery 2.0 and highly anticipated smart driving updates to drive showroom traffic. Geely is positioned for faster growth off a lower base, performing exceptionally well with its Zeekr 8X and 9X models. Meanwhile, XPENG and Huawei-backed models are also generating strong consumer interest following their respective technology updates. The expert anticipates March NEV deliveries will recover to 90% of prior-year levels, with further improvement expected in April. Should oil prices continue climbing, total NEV penetration could accelerate by an additional 5-8 percentage points throughout 2026.