Goldman Sachs: Europe Multi-Industry — China Trade Tracker Implications for European Capital Goods
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Goldman Sachs employs a comprehensive trade tracker covering 36 capital goods categories to analyze the competitive impact of Chinese exports on European industrials. The report highlights a structural shift: Europe's share of global export volumes in these tracked products has steadily declined from 57% in 2005 to 21% in 2024. Over the same period, China's share surged dramatically from 4% to 21%, fundamentally altering the competitive landscape.
Accelerating into December 2025, China's overall export growth reached 6.6% year-over-year, with shipments to the EU jumping 11.6%. However, exports to the United States plummeted by 30.0%, reflecting tariff impacts. The fastest-growing Chinese export categories globally include marine engines, heat pumps, industrial robots, and heavy trucks. Meanwhile, Chinese imports of heavy trucks, excavators, and elevators fell sharply, indicating robust domestic substitution.
In response to these competitive pressures, European Union trade defense mechanisms have intensified. The EU initiated 33 new anti-dumping investigations in 2024, a significant increase from 12 in 2023 and well above the ten-year average of 14. The report notes that China's recent improvements in PPI and manufacturing capacity utilization bear close monitoring, as these macroeconomic indicators could either alleviate or further exacerbate global export market pressures for European manufacturers.